Getting ready for climate challenge

By the 2080's summer temperatures in Scotland could increase by more than 3ºC if emissions continue at their present rate, according to projections published today.

Snowfall could also reduce by 60 per cent or more in the mountains, and might stop completely in other parts of Scotland.

These are the key Scottish findings in the new UK Climate Projections 2009 study (UKCP 09) which looks at how the UK climate will change over coming decades.They show the effects of current levels of emissions, and also what would happen if emissions increase or decrease.The data offers greater accuracy and understanding of possible scenarios, however some of the scenarios are extreme and very unlikely to occur.



Commenting on the projections, Climate Change Minister Stewart Stevenson said:

"These predictions demonstrate the need for a global agreement in Copenhagen this December. Climate change is the greatest environmental threat facing the world and if global action isn't taken to reduce emissions then we all face an uncertain future.

"However, Scotland is already ahead of the game. We are taking forward the most ambitious and comprehensive climate change legislation anywhere in the world. Our Bill sets a target of reducing Scotland's greenhouse gas emissions by 80 per cent by 2050, including emissions from international aviation and shipping. We need to be sure that we are meeting these challenges by taking effective action now. The Scottish Government has insisted on the inclusion of annual targets, including a tough interim target of at least 34 per cent by 2020, which will rise to at least 42 per cent should as we hope the EU agree to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 30 per cent by 2020. And yesterday we published our Delivery Plan setting out how we could achieve these targets.

"Scotland is well placed to meet these challenges. Scotland has massive low carbon energy potential and harnessing the energy related opportunities presented by Scotland's natural capital can create tens of thousands of green jobs. These are jobs for the future - jobs in our rapidly expanding renewables industry, in developing and applying clean fossil fuel technology, in energy efficiency and microgeneration. In these challenging economic times we need to play to our strengths and build the low carbon economy of the future.

"What these projections also show is that some degree of climate change is unavoidable, as the impacts over the next 30 to 40 years have been determined by our past and present emissions. Therefore, alongside cutting emissions, Scotland needs to find ways to adapt to climate change. That is why we are consulting on the Government's Climate Change Adaptation Framework, which looks at how Scottish society should adapt to living in a changing climate. By planning and preparing for change now, Scotland will be better placed to take advantage of any opportunities and build its resilience to the negative impacts of warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers."

The Scottish Government is currently undertaking the second stage of the consultation process on our adaptation framework which closes on July 20, 2009.