Climate Change Risk Assessment

Today the UK Government has published the first independent assessment of the impacts the UK is facing from climate change.

Key findings from the Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) for Scotland include:

Drier summers may reduce water availability, affecting both the natural environment and public water supplies

Changes to water temperature and quality in the seas around Scotland could have a negative impact on the quality of shellfish and lead to shifts in the location of fish stocks

Warmer conditions may lead to an increase in forest productivity and in yields of key agricultural crops, although there is a potential for increased threats due to new or more widespread pests and diseases

Increased coastal and inland flooding may affect people, property, infrastructure, natural habitats and a range of animal and plant species

The CCRA presents the latest evidence on the threats and opportunities to the year 2100, with a specific report produced for Scotland. It presents evidence from individual CCRA sector reports, other studies commissioned by the project and recent research literature. It provides supporting evidence for developing the first Scottish Government Climate Change Adaptation Programme, to protect Scotland against a changing climate, which will be consulted on later this year.

Commenting on the report, Minister for Environment and Climate Change Stewart Stevenson said:

“The UK Climate Change Risk Assessment is a welcome contribution to our growing understanding of the potential threats and opportunities faced by Scotland from a changing climate. The CCRA will contribute to the development of Scotland’s first Adaptation Programme, building a stronger, more resilient Scotland in the future.”

Julian Holbrook, manager of Adaptation Scotland, also endorsed the publication of the CCRA and said:

“Changes in climate will affect how we all live and work in Scotland for many years to come. The publication of this important assessment is a vital step towards understanding and preparing for changes in climate, and will be a valuable resource for many organisations."

Jim Densham, Convener of Scottish Environment LINK's Climate Adaptation Taskforce, said:

“This important assessment will shed light on the serious risks that wildlife and the natural environment face from a changing climate. It will be essential for the Scottish Government to fully consider these threats as it develops actions to increase Scotland’s resilience to climate impacts. LINK believes that Scotland’s journey into a future climate should be guided by the evidence and a set of principles based on sustainable development.”

The UK Climate Change Act 2008 requires an assessment of the risks to the UK of the current and predicted impacts of climate change to be prepared on a five year cycle. The CCRA published today is the first assessment of climate impacts under the UK Act.

While a partner in the UK Act, Scotland also has its own climate change legislation which sets ambitious world leading emissions reduction targets. Under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009, Scottish Ministers are required to develop an adaptation programme to address the risks identified for Scotland in the CCRA.